Airport expansion is not sustainable

One day, there may be clean fuels and new technologies, used at large scale for short, medium and long haul flights, which are proven to reduce the greenhouse gases caused by flying at a faster rate than they increase from rising flight numbers. But currently, those fuels and technologies only exist at a small scale – some are barely off the drawing board.

Independent expert assessments agree that there is negligible prospect of scaling up alternative fuels quickly enough and some could have dangerous environmental side effects. Have a look at these recent publications by the Royal Society, Imperial College, Gossling & Humpe, Becken, Mackay & Lee, Cerulogy and Element Energy.

Last year, the Climate Change Committee warned the Conservative government that its Jet Zero Strategy was “high risk due to its reliance on nascent technology” and advised that “Demand management is the most effective way of reducing aviation CO2 and non-CO2 emissions.” (p.267). It’s not clear whether Labour will ditch or stick with Jet Zero.

The Climate Change Committee is an independent, government appointed body, made up of scientists, economists and other experts – so they know what they’re talking about. They gave the same advice about stopping airport expansions to the Conservative government for three years running but were ignored. Will the Labour government listen?

Like the rest of the aviation industry, Leeds Bradford Airport has trumpeted the alleged economic benefits that expansion would bring. This is doubtless designed to appeal to Leeds councillors and align with Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s focus on economic growth. But is continuous airport expansion sustainable? Are the aviation industry’s claims credible? Analysis by the New Economics Foundation raises serious doubts.

The industry’s claim that expansion helps the economy is largely based on the alleged benefits of business travel. However, analysis of Office for National Statistics data in May this year provided evidence that business air travel and economic growth are steadily ‘decoupling’. UK businesses spent £2.9 billion less (-22%) on air travel in 2023 compared with 2019 (in 2023 prices), despite real GDP growth of 1.8% over the same period. That’s hardly a surprise. We all learned to meet online during lockdown and discovered that it’s easy and cheap.

The New Economics Foundation’s 2023 report ‘Losing Altitude’ – peer reviewed by the distinguished economist John Siraut – found that despite a huge growth in passenger numbers up to 2019, the market share of business passengers in 2022 was half of what it was in 2013. Analysis of other Office for National Statistics data revealed that, as of 2015, the Air Transport sector ranked among the least productive sectors in the economy for generating jobs – 108th out of 129 sectors.

So it’s clear that the hard data undermines the industry’s claim that increasing the number of flights will drive economic growth.

When it comes to Leeds Bradford and similar ‘bucket & spade’ airports, there is arguably an even bigger economic issue: the ‘tourism deficit’. The fact is, Leeds Bradford Airport primarily takes people out of Yorkshire on holiday to spend their money elsewhere. No one is suggesting that everyone should always holiday in the UK – though it would help our domestic tourism industry if we did that more – but it’s obvious that Leeds Bradford Airport makes its money by taking people and their money abroad.

Has airport expansion benefitted ordinary aviation workers? No. Productivity growth in air transport has not translated into increased wages for the majority in the sector. After accounting for inflation, wages in air transport were significantly lower in 2022 than in 2006. And this wage squeeze has been felt by middle and lower paid workers, with only wages at the top seeing real terms growth. The drive for expansion is itself driven by the desire to increase shareholders’ dividends and airport bosses’ bonuses.

Safe Landing is an organisation of aviation workers who care about the climate and the future of their industry. They argue it makes no sense to keep on ramping up passenger numbers when we know that solutions to aviation’s greenhouse gas problem are decades away. That would end in industry collapse and mass redundancies when governments impose stricter controls on emissions.

Safe Landing says it’s much more sensible to limit demand for flying now to allow time for alternative fuels to be developed and scaled up. This would mean a more stable industry, avoiding ‘boom and bust’ and enabling the just transition to a low carbon economy.

We believe there is a better way forward: investment now in the clean industries of the future. We need to build wind turbines to make clean electricity and super-insulate peoples’ homes to cut greenhouse gases and energy bills at the same time. This approach has been heralded as part of the Labour government’s agenda so we shall wait and see whether promises turn into jobs.

Finally, returning to Leeds Bradford Airport, its new ‘vision’ is for 2030. This is a very significant year for efforts to tackle the climate crisis. The International Panel on Climate Change has stated we must cut all emissions in half by 2030 to maintain our chances of preventing the worst effects of climate breakdown. The good news is that we can still do this if we make the right decisions now. And the right decision is to stop Leeds Bradford Airport – and other airports – from expanding.